NYG

Singapore Market in Holiday Mood as Many Traders Still in Leave

STI MARKET REVIEW:

Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) opened 0.2 percent or 4.91 points higher at 2882.53 on Monday and ended lower to -0.08 percent or points at -2.30. STI came off from its intra-day peak of 2889.14 and low of 2869.69. 3 Days Free Trial Signals

The Singapore market appears to be stuck in holiday mood because of many traders are still in leave.

LOCAL BOURSE

Singapore will provide advance estimates of GDP for the fourth quarter and for 2015. A quarterly survey by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) earlier this month showed that economists expect GDP to expand by 1.4% on a year-on-year basis in the fourth quarter, down from 1.9 per cent growth in the third quarter. The survey showed that full-year growth for 2015 was expected to be 1.9%.

MARKET FORECAST

STI is expected to consolidate in its next trading session. It has its support at 2857 and resistance at 2903. The RSI level is near the center line at 49.521 and if it crosses the center line then the market is expected to move up-to the level of 2910. The volume might be on the lower side due to the thin year ending and cautiousness of the investors over the high fluctuation in oil prices.

STI COUNTER SPECIFIC NEWS

• Coal-mining group Geo Energy Resources has entered into a conditional sale-and-purchase agreement to buy the remaining 34 per cent shareholding interest in Borneo International Resources Pte Ltd that it does not already own for US$25 million.Borneo International Resources indirectly holds an effective equity interest of 98.96 per cent in PT Sungai Danau Jaya (SDJ), which holds coal-mining concession in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
• Xyec Holdings units Neutral Co and ACLOX Co will be merged with effect from 1 April 2016.The merger was proposed because both subsidiaries offer similar activities in the provision of experienced engineers to customers in major manufacturing industries, primarily IT Services.Xyec believes that the merger would lead to the more effective use of facilities and resources as well as better execution of operation currently performed by leveraging economies of scale.
• Wee Hur Holdings has acquired an office building and an adjoining piece of land in Brisbane, Australia, for A$63 million ($64.2 million).With a net let table area of about 14,000 sqm, the property is located in the Central Business District of Brisbane.

GLOBAL FACTORS AND WORLD INDICES:

• Asian stocks dipped on Monday amid a lack of immediate directional cues in light year-end trade, although Japanese shares managed to rise following a rebound in crude oil prices from multiple-year lows.Investors across asset markets were without some of the usual leads as markets in Europe and North America and many in Asia were closed on Friday for Christmas.MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gave up earlier modest gains.
• China stocks tumbled more than 2 per cent on Monday, their biggest loss in a month, as weak industrial profit data and a looming revamp of how companies will be listed, weighed on the market.The blue-chip CSI300 index tanked 2.9 per cent, to 3,727.63, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 2.6 per cent, to 3,533.78 points.
• Tokyo stocks snapped a five-day losing streak in a quiet trading session Monday as bargain-buying and a weaker yen lifted the market in the last trading week of 2015.The benchmark Nikkei 225 index at the Tokyo Stock Exchange advanced 0.56 per cent, or 104.29 points, to close at 18,873.35.
• Hong Kong stocks fell on Monday, pulled lower by a slump in mainland shares on the first trading day after last week's Christmas holiday.The Hang Seng Index fell 1.0 per cent, to 21,919.62, while the China Enterprises Index lost 1.7 per cent, to 9,789.46 points.
• Malaysian shares closed higher on Monday, with the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index gaining 7.22 points to 1,670.73.Some 1.91 billion lots, valued at RM1.72 billion, were traded. Gainers outnumbered losers 493 to 418.
• Japan's industrial output fell 1.0 per cent in November from the previous month, data showed on Monday, suggesting that sluggish emerging market demand continues to cloud the outlook for the economy.The fall compared with a median market forecast of a 0.6 per cent drop.
• Gold held a weekly gain as investors weighed the outlook for inflation in the US for clues on the likely pace of interest rate increases by the the Federal Reserve in 2016.The metal gained 0.9 per cent last week.
• Oil prices fell on Monday after the long Christmas weekend, with US crudes defending a newly gained premium over internationally traded Brent contracts.Front-month US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were trading at US$37.91 per tonne, down 19 cents from their last settlement.Brent was down 18 cents at US$17.71 a barrel, meaning that US crude defended a premium it gained over the globally traded benchmark last week.
• The dollar inched away from a two-month low against the yen on Monday, while a resumption in falls in oil prices took linked currencies including the Australian and Canadian dollars around a third of a percent lower.Australia and the key London market in currencies were among those still closed for local holidays.

Daily Forex Technical Analysis Report

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD made a spike from the 1.48 zone on Wednesday. However, the resistive nature of $1.49 level has recently been quite frequently exhibited, hence we suspect the downtrend might continue for the moment. Currently we are looking to make profits through short positions. 1.50 level might be considered as a ceiling, hence our interest in Long positions will be stirred up only after that. 3 Days Free Trail Signals

EURUSD

The EUR/USD took a dip in light of stronger than expected U.S. New Home Sales report. The pair found a support in the vicinity of the 10-day Moving Average at 1.0920. We see a resistance at 1.1059, that also happens to be in the zone of December highs. Among the indicators, RSI(Relative Strength Index) happens to be in the neutral zone and MACD(Moving Average Convergence Divergence) also isn't giving positive signals.

AUDUSD

The AUD/USD spent the entire session on Wednesday exhibiting pendulum motion as the 0.72 level seems to be a sticky one for the pair. Take a look at the 100-day Exponential Moving Average, it is essentially flat and hardly any defined trends happen to be there. For the moment, it is better to stay away from this pair due to the lack of volatility at present.

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair had a lazy Wednesday as it continued with its stay in the 120.50 level. Any noise at this level is vibrated to the 118.50 level. At present, we are in search of a good opportunity to take a Long position and a supportive candle might give us the confidence that we lack at the moment. Any chances of a short position are below the 118.50 zone. However, it seems this might take a while before it occurs.

STI Recovers Gap of Down Week; Impact of FOMC Meeting

WEEKLY WRAP OF STI

Straits Times Index (STI) opened lower at 2832.44 on Monday and ended higher to this week by recovering the gap down at the week start by closing at 2852.84. 3 Days Free Trial Signals

STI came off from its weekly peak of 2857.39 and low of 2831.10 this week and it keep on rising in 4 consecutive working days in this week which brought which recovered the fall on the opening at the starting of this week on Monday. Wall Street's sudden slump on Thursday suggests that markets are still locked in monetary expansion mode, preferring rates to remain depressed. the impact here was rises for the Straits Times Index before and immediately after the FOMC meeting.

MARKET FORECAST FOR WEEK AHEAD

STI is expected to be in positive sentiment next week. STI has taken support near 2757 and expected to maintain this support next week as well. It has its resistance at 2941. If it breaks this resistance than it might go up to 2950.

STI COUNTER SPECIFIC NEWS

• 
  MM-2 Asia has entered into an agreement to acquire a majority stake in Millinillion, a tech start-up developing interactive solutions for digital users globally.Millinillion is a company specializing in developing Business to Consumer (B2C) mobile applications and digital interactive solutions for clients.MM-2 and Millinillion will jointly develop a series of mobile applications in data-based marketing, music and industry talent pool management.
• Marine fabrication and engineering firm Triyards seems keen to divorce from the embattled oil & gas industry this year.The company has won contracts worth US$45.5 million ($64.5 million) to build vessels that have nothing to do with oil & gas, an industry suffering falling commodity prices and order cancellations.Other firms in the sector, such as SembCorp Marine and Keppel Corp have seen their share prices suffer this year amid falling demand for their rigs and vessels.
• Q&M Dental Group (Singapore) plans to restructure its stake in Qinhuangdao Aidite High Technical Ceramic Co ahead of a possible listing of the China-based manufacturing subsidiary.As part of the restructuring, Aidite will reduce its equity capital to 23.97 million yuan from 47 million yuan.
• Golden Land Property Development shareholders have approved Frasers Centrepoint's (FCL's) proposed acquisition of 29.5% of its enlarged share capital through a 4.97 billion baht ($196 million) new capital injection.Golden Land is one of the country's leading real estate developers engaged in residential and commercial property development, as well as property management and property advisory services.
• Mencast Holdings says its energy services division has renewed its service contract with the Asian headquarter of an oil supermajor for environmental remediation services for another three years.The contract also includes the option for an extension for a further two years.Another exiting long-term contract with the same client has also been revised to include additional services and increased volumes for the remainder of its term.
• CMC Infocomm expects to report a net loss for 1H2016.The net loss was primarily due to substantial one-off professional fees incurred in relation to the initial public offering exercise when after the company was listed on the Catalist board .In addition, the group recorded an increase in overhead expenses, mainly payroll expenses due to additional headcount to support the execution of the group's expansion into new and complementary businesses in Singapore and Malaysia.Shares in CMC Infocomm closed flat at 15.1 cents.

GLOBAL FACTORS AND WORLD INDICES

• Asian shares took their cue from Wall Street and slipped on Friday, and Japanese stocks slumped after briefly jumping on the central bank's statement that it would expand parts of its stimulus programme.
• China stocks held nearly steady on Friday, capping a dramatic week that witnessed a strong relief rally in the previous session following an expected rise in US interest rates.Investors are now refocusing on economic fundamentals, with a key central government economic meeting that starts on Friday likely to offer the market fresh cues for directions.The blue-chip CSI300 index rose 0.3 per cent, to 3,767.91.
• Japanese stocks fell on Friday in a session that turned volatile after the Bank of Japan announced it would maintain its massive stimulus programme's base money target while expanding the types of assets it purchases.The benchmark index was down 1.9 per cent to 18,986.80, and had lost 1.3 per cent for the week.
• Hong Kong stocks ended Friday slightly lower, as many sectors corrected after the previous session's relief rally following the long-expected US interest rate hike.The Hang Seng index fell 0.5 per cent, to 21,755.56, while the China Enterprises Index lost 0.3 per cent, to 9,634.41 points.
• European stock markets slid at the start of trading on Friday as a rally inspired by the US interest rate hike petered out heading into the weekend break.London's benchmark FTSE 100 index dropped 0.8 per cent to 6,056.9 points .
• China's ravenous appetite for overseas assets is powering a record year for Asian dealmaking, with deal volumes in the region surpassing the US$1 trillion mark annually for the first time.Acquisitions involving companies in the Asia Pacific region rose 55 per cent in 2015 to US$1.2 trillion.Chinese buyers snapped up premier assets, ranging from the world's biggest luggage handler to Italian tire brand Pirelli & C SpA, and accounted for about half the deals from the region.
• Singdollar projected to decline most in 2016 amongst Asian currencies as the growth in Asia's developing economies will slow to 6.4 per cent next year from 6.5 per cent in 2015, with China's expansion decelerating to 6.3 per cent from 6.8 per cent. That means Asian central banks will need to further cut interest rates while the Fed gradually tightens, resulting in outflows and weaker currencies.
• The US dollar pushed higher against other major currencies on increasingly bullish sentiment about the greenback following the Federal Reserve's historic decision to lift US interest rates.
• Crude prices sank deeper in Asian trading on Friday after the US oil benchmark closed at its lowest level since February 2009 on worsening oversupply concerns and a stronger dollar.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for January delivery was trading at US$34.77 per barrel, 18 cents off its close of US$34.95 in New York.
• Gold steadied on Friday but largely kept losses made a day earlier when the metal suffered its biggest slide in five months after U.S. interest rates were raised for the first time in nearly a decade and the dollar surged.Spot gold ticked up 0.3 percent to $1,054.40 an ounce by 0327 GMT, following a 2 percent slide in the previous session, its biggest one day slide since July. The metal is down nearly 2 percent for the week in its worst performance in six weeks.

Singapore STI Ended Higher With Positive Sentiment in its Next Trading Session

STI MARKET REVIEW:

Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) opened 3.43 points higher or 0.12% on Thursday morning after the US Federal Reserve raised its short term interest after 7 years and the market ended higher to 20.26 points or 0.71 percentage higher at 2861.18. STI came off from its intra-day peak of 2868.27 and low of 2833.57. Market breadth was positive. Excluding warrants, gainers outnumber decliners 200 to 165. Get Free Trial of Trading Signals

LOCAL BOURSE

Non-oil domestic exports fell 3.3% y-o-y in November after flat growth in October.On a m-o-m, seasonally adjusted basis, NODX slipped 3.8% after October's 0.3% dip.Both the y-o-y and m-o-m figures for October have been revised: the former was earlier reported to be a 0.5% decline and the latter was a 1.1% rise.Non-oil re-exports continued to increase in November, but eased from 6.1% in October to 5.1% y-o-y,due to an expansion in both electronic and non-electronic NORX.

MARKET FORECAST

STI is expected to consolidate with positive sentiment in its next trading session. Also the market has responded positively towards the interest rate hike by Federal Reserve for the first time in nearly a decade on Wednesday. It has its support at 2829 and resistance at 2876. Investors are cautious as Singapore non-oil domestic exports fell in November but the market is expected to move with positive sentiments.

STI COUNTER SPECIFIC NEWS

• IPC Corporation is proposing a capital reduction move to return $136.467 million in cash to shareholders, or $1.60 per share.The existing cash hoard of the company came from sale of seven hotels in Japan for around JPY14.94 billion, or some $172.22 million.
• The Trendlines Group has established two new portfolio companies, Tandem Technologies and Zeev Implants, via its unit Trendlines Medical.The two new companies bring the total number of Trendlines portfolio companies to 47.Tandem Technologies aims to make the process of removing and retrieving colon polyps much more efficient and accurate, with the goal of a near 100% retrieval rate.
• EZRA Holdings has agreed to buy subsidiary EMAS Offshore's entire 12.13 per cent stake in Malaysia-listed Perisai Petroleum Teknologi for US$56 million, a 500 per cent premium to the share market value.The agreed price of US$56 million is based on the cost of EMAS's investment at inception.

GLOBAL FACTORS AND WORLD INDICES:

• Asian stock markets jumped on Thursday as investors chose to take an historic hike in US interest rates as a mark of confidence in the world's largest economy, lifting the dollar and piling on the pain for oil prices.China also allowed its currency slip for a 10th straight session to hit its lowest since June 2011. The steady decline in turn puts pressure on other Asian currencies to depreciate to stay competitive.
• The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade signaling faith that the US economy had largely overcome the wounds of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.The US central bank's policy-setting committee raised the range of its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to between 0.25% and 0.50%, ending a lengthy debate about whether the economy was strong enough to withstand higher borrowing costs.
• China stocks rallied on Thursday as risk appetite improved after the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in nearly a decade, as expected, removing a major source of uncertainty about the US central bank's policy.The CSI300 index of the largest listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose 1.9 per cent, to 3,755.89.
• The People's Bank of China set its official midpoint rate at 6.4757 per dollar, its weakest level since June 2011, and 0.2 per cent weaker than the previous fix of 6.4626.The sharply weaker yuan midpoint reflected the dollar's strength in global markets after the US Federal Reserve raised its policy interest rate overnight, traders said.
• Tokyo stocks jumped on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, underscoring its confidence in the health of the world's top economy.The benchmark Nikkei 225 index at the Tokyo Stock Exchange gained 1.59 percent, or 303.65 points, to finish at 19,353.56.
• Australian shares rose 1.46 per cent on Thursday, joining a global equities rally as investors piled back into the markets after a US interest rate hike signalled confidence in the world's largest economy.The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 73.55 points to 5,102 at the close of trade, after reaching a high of 5,129.1 earlier in the session.
• Japan's exports in November fell at the fastest pace in almost three years as shipments to Asia declined in a worrying sign that weakness in overseas demand could curb economic growth. Data showed that exports fell 3.3 per cent in November from a year earlier, more than the median estimate for a 1.5 per cent annual decline.
• The US dollar rose slightly against the euro and the yen on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve's historic move to raise interest rates for the first time in nine years.The dollar rose to US$1.0911 per euro around 2200 GMT from US$1.0930 at the same time on Tuesday. The greenback was up 0.5 per cent at 122.26 yen.
• Gold slipped on Thursday to give back some of its overnight gains, with trading choppy as the dollar surged after the Federal Reserve hiked US interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade.Gold has slumped nearly 10% this year, largely on uncertainty around the timing of the rate rise and on fears that higher rates would hit demand for the non-interest-paying metal. It had fallen to a near-six-year low earlier this month.
• Crude prices extended losses in Asia Thursday after another report showing a further increase in US stockpiles added to fears about a global glut.The under-pressure commodity suffered fresh selling on Wednesday after the US Department of Energy showed that supplies rose 4.8 million barrels.

Forex: GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD Down due to FOMC statement; USDJPY Up

GBP/USD
Tuesday seemed to be ruled by volatility throughout the course of the day. The pair might have broken down,however 1.50 level below comes out to be supportive,hence our eagerness to start selling. The main game changer for the current period will be the impending FOMC Statement as it has the ability to change the market direction instantaneously. We are currently playing safe and wait for the market to make up its mind. The best thing to do at the moment is to simply wait. Get 3 Days Free Trial Signals
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair made a bearish candle in the 1.10 zone on Tuesday. The FOMC statement will be playing its part in this pair too, as it is the only way to get an idea what the Federal Reserve is planning to do next. Its best to calmly wait for the Fed decision and then decide what to do. Until the decision is released ,we expect high Volatility in the market.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair finds support at 0.7150 level and we have hopes of a pull back from this level. Tuesday saw the pair drop as we continued with our search for opportunities. A prolong drop might see the pair touch the 0.70 level, but the possibility is stronger in case the lows of of the session are breached.Overall, the markets are going to be very volatile.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY climbed up on Tuesday, due to the presence of buyers below. We are positive of touching the 124 level and with the FOMC statement on its way,the volatility might give us some additional thrust. Considering the 120 level as the “floor”, we might exploit the any pullback as a buying opportunity. A hawkish statement might even get us passed the 125 level and our confidence refrains us from taking any short positions.

Singapore Shares Close Flat Ahead of Key FOMC Meeting

STI MARKET REVIEW :

Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) opened 9.91 points lower or 0.35% lower at 2805.13 on Monday after a mixed showing of overseas markets overnight with Wall street and European stocks and ended higher to 2815.52.

ahead of the US Federal Reserve's Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting this week at which an interest rate hike is expected to be announced.

3 Days Free Trial Signals

STI came off from its intra-day peak of 2833.92 and low of 2800.71. The Straits Times Index (STI) traded between 2,800.71 and 2,833.92, after opening 0.23% lower at 2,808.63.

LOCAL BOURSE

Singapore Exchange (SGX) was named "Global Exchange of the Year" for the first time at the recent Futures & Options World (FOW) International Awards ceremony, as well as "Exchange of the Year - Asia, Australasia and MEA."

FOW cited SGX's strong volume growth through 2015 with trading levels up more than 60% year-on-year, as well as continued innovation across the risk management portfolio.

MARKET FORECAST

STI is expected to take side ways trend. Its suport level is at 2801 and resistance level is at 2832, if breaks this level it is expected to go up to level of 2850. However, market sentiment still remains bearish due to widely expectation of increase in US interest rate at the end of the two-day meet on 15-16 december.

STI COUNTER SPECIFIC NEWS

• XMH Holdings , recorded a 69.3% increase in 1H16 ended October of $3.57 million from a year ago.The increase came on the back of a 10.1% increase in revenue to $49.56 million, primarily supported by the increase in the projects segment, following the inclusion of ZPA's results.XMH had acquired an 80% stake in ZPA in March for $12.8 million.
• Sinarmas Land has revealed its plans for Nuvasa Bay development project on the beachfront of Nongsa on Batam island.Batam's first luxury integrated residential and mixed-use development will integrate an exclusive residential area with a full suite of resort facilities surrounded by an 18-hole international golf course along the 1.2km-long beachfront.
• VALLIANZ Holdings Limited said its subsidiary, Rawabi Vallianz Offshore Services Limited (RVOS), intends to enter into a refinancing exercise for the bulk of its bank loans amounting up to 1.1 billion Saudi riyal (US$293.3 million).These loans are currently secured on RVOS' fleet of 20 vessels comprising mainly anchor handling tugs and platform support vessels with an aggregate net book value of about 1.52 billion Saudi riyal.

GLOBAL FACTORS AND WORLD INDICES:

• Asian shares firmed on Tuesday as recently volatile crude oil prices showed some stability, though gains were limited by caution ahead of a widely anticipated U.S. interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve.
• China's yuan, weakened against the dollar after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) set its official midpoint rate at its lowest level in more than four years for a second day.
• China stocks ended slightly lower on Tuesday, with a correction in banking and resource shares countering a surge in property firms that was triggered by hopes of more support measures for the real estate market.The CSI300 index of the largest listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell 0.5 per cent to 3,694.39 points.
• Tokyo stocks fell on Tuesday as investors booked profits ahead of a US Federal Reserve meeting where policymakers will decide on whether to announce a long-awaited interest rate rise.The benchmark Nikkei 225 index at the Tokyo Stock Exchange dropped 1.68 per cent, or 317.52 points, to close at 18,565.90, while the Topix index of all first-section shares was down 1.66 per cent, or 25.33 points, to 1,502.55.
• Australian shares gave up early gains to hit a 2-1/2-year low led by a late sell-off in banks and resources shares after the government forecast its budget deficit would swell to A$37.4 billion (S$38.2 billion).
• Singapore employment growth fell sharply from a year ago in the third quarter, bringing growth in the first nine months of this year down to the lowest since the recession year of 2009.Total employment rose 12,600 in the third quarter - against an earlier estimate of 16,400, and 33,400 for the same quarter a year ago.
• The People's Bank of China set its official midpoint rate at 6.4559 per dollar prior to the market open on Tuesday, its weakest level since July 2011, and 0.1 per cent weaker than the previous fix of 6.4495.Guided by a series of weaker PBOC fixes, spot yuan hit its lowest level in 4-1/2 years.
• The US dollar edged lower on Tuesday as "nervous" markets focus on a Federal Reserve meeting this week where policymakers are expected to decide on a long-awaited interest rate rise.After months of speculation, the US central bank is widely seen as all but certain to give the green light to a small increase in borrowing costs for the first time in nearly a decade - usually a plus for the dollar.
• Oil prices were mixed in Asian trade on Tuesday after rebounding from sub-US$35 levels in New York, but traders were braced for more downward pressure ahead of an expected hike in US interest rates,with global oversupply still dictating price trends.
• Gold was hurting from overnight losses on Tuesday and the metal looked vulnerable to a drop back to multi-year lows on expectations of a US rate hike later this week.The Federal Reserve will kick off its last policy meet of the year later on Tuesday.

KLCI Downs at last moments as Europe opens strong

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia (FBM) KLCI plummeted during the final minutes of trading after remaining flat for most of the day. 3 Days Free Trial Signals
The benchmark index closed down 7.12 points to an intraday low of 1,622.84 points as at 5pm, which also represents a new two-month low for the KLCI. 

Turnover for the day was 1.43 billion shares worth RM1.6bil. The broader market was mixed with 387 gainers, 386 losers and 389 stocks unchanged.
The declines were attributed to several component stocks of the KLCI which hit intraday lows upon market close, including Tenaga Nasional Bhd and British American Tobacco.

Key Asian markets were mostly positive at market close, while European bourses opened strongly on Tuesday as investors await what will probably be the first interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in a decade this week.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet in Washington on Dec 16 to vote on whether to raise interest rates after a decade of close to zero borrowing costs.
Among the biggest gainers in Europe were the Stoxx Europe 600 Index which gained 1.2% in early morning trading. Similarly, Germany’s DAX advanced 1.6%.
Bloomberg reported that despite the advances, markets remain jittery due to the Fed meeting, plummeting crude oil prices as well as recent losses in high-yield credit markets.

Market forecast for KLCI:

Yesterday the KLCI index had given a closing near to the support level and if the index will cross the level of 1620 then we are expecting it to give a negative movement in near term, however the movement of the index in broadly influenced by the upcoming result of FED meeting on interest rate decision.

The ringgit was recovered slightly and was last traded at RM4.3025 as at 5pm against the dollar, compared to RM4.3265 earlier this morning.

Brent crude recovered slightly to US$37.98 per barrel, while US crude rose to US$36.37.
Crude palm oil for third month delivery fell by RM69 to RM2,406 per tonne, having hit RM2,500 on Dec 11.
Westports led the decliners in the KLCI after falling 14 sen to close at RM3.85.Astro fell 9 sen to RM2.53.
Among the plantation counters in the KLCI, PPB Group rose 2 sen to close at RM15.38. Sime Darby fell 10 sen to RM7.29 while Kuala Lumpur Kepong closed flat at RM22.14.
Petronas Chemicals led the gainers after rising 15 sen to close at RM6.80. Petronas Gas fell 4 sen to RM22.10 while SapuraKencana Petroleum fell one sen to RM1.86.
  Among the banks, Hong Leong Bank closed up 12 sen to RM13.40. Maybank fell 7 sen to RM8.18 while CIMB was flat at RM4.40.
AmBank fell 5 sen to RM4.31 while Public Bank was down 2 sen to RM18.24.
As for telcos, Maxis fell 3 sen to RM6.51 while DiGi closed flat at RM5.03. Axiata rose two sen to RM6 while TM fell two sen to RM6.43.
Glovemakers were among the top gainers in the broader market. Top Glove Corp closed at a new all-time high of RM11.86 after gaining 86 sen today on the back of strong quarterly earnings. Meanwhile, Supermax rose 15 sen to close at RM2.91.
Among the key regional markets:

 Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.68% to 18,565.90;
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.17% to 21,274.37;
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.29% to 3,510.35;
CSI 300 fell 0.46% to 3,694.39;
Taiwan’s Taiex rose 0.41% to 8,073.35;
South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.27% to 1,932.27 and
Singapore’s Straits Times Index gained 0.19% to 2,820.34.
Spot gold fell US$3.02 to US$1,062.89 per troy ounce.

Bursa Malaysia: KLCI Technical Analysis & Market Forecast

Market Review for KLCI: The FBM KLCI index lost 10.18 points or 0.62% on Monday. The Finance Index fell 0.46% to 13951.92 points, the Properties Index dropped 1.15% to 1162.27 points and the Plantation Index down 0.40% to 7322.99 points. The market traded within a range of 10.16 points within a high of 1635.28 and a low of 1625.12 during the session.

The KLCI closed 10.18 points lower to 1629.96 points amid losses in Wall Street on last Friday as oil prices continued to slide and investors remained cautious over the potential interest rate hike by Federal Reserve.

Market forecast for KLCI:

The KLCI index is expected to trade with bearish sentiments in coming trading session on the back of the cautious investors sentiment over the upcoming FED meeting on interest rate decision. On technical ground the KLCI index test the level of 1600 in near term.

KLCI COUNTER SPECIFIC NEWS:

• Petronas Dagangan Bhd is divesting its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) businesses in Vietnam as part of its portfolio rationalisation strategy.
• Taliworks Corp Bhd, which has a tie-up with the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) to acquire and operate concession-based asset, has set it sights on a few more targets locally and abroad.
• Dagang NeXchange Bhd (DNeX) expects to double its full-year revenue in 2016, backed by its oil and gas ventures. By 2020, energy is expected to be a dominant driver for the company, whose mainstay now remains trade facilitation and e-commerce.
• Berjaya Food Bhd, the country’s largest-listed food and beverage (F&B) company by market capitalisation, will tread cautiously when it comes to acquisitions.
• GD Express Carrier Bhd (GDex), riding on the e-commerce wave, will pursue inorganic growth via acquisitions and seek partnerships with other courier companies to expand into new markets in the Asean region, as it aims to achieve 24% to 25% net profit growth this financial year ending June 30, 2016.
• AirAsia Group has won the 'World's Leading Low-Cost Airline' title for the third consecutive year at this year's World Travel Awards Grand Final 2015 held in Morocco.

GLOBAL FACTORS AND WORLD INDICES:

• Asian stocks fell on Monday and China's yuan hit fresh 4-1/2 year lows as plunging oil prices added to investors' nervousness about riskier assets ahead of an expected US rate rise by the Federal Reserve later in the week.
• Shanghai stocks jumped more than 2 per cent on Monday in their best session in a month, as stronger-than-expected November factory activity lifted sentiment without dashing hopes of fresh stimulus.
• Tokyo stocks tumbled on Monday, extending a global equities sell-off ahead of this week's hotly anticipated Federal Reserve policy meeting.The benchmark Nikkei 225 index at the Tokyo Stock Exchange fell 1.80 per cent, or 347.06 points, to 18,883.42 by the close, after losing more than three percent in earlier trading.
• Australian shares came within a whisker of their 2015 trough on Monday, in line with a rout in the region, as falling oil prices and worries that U.S. interest rates will be hiked this week unsettled the market.The S&P/ASX 200 index shed 2.01 per cent, or 100.85 points, to finish at 4,928.60.
• Hong Kong's benchmark stock index fell for the eighth straight session to a more than 2-month low on Monday.The Hang Seng index fell 0.7 per cent, to 21,309.85, the lowest close since Sept 30. But the China Enterprises Index , which tracks Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, gained 0.1 per cent, to 9,315.91 points.
• European shares opened higher on Monday as a sell-off triggered by China concerns and tumbling oil prices ran out of steam, with wind turbine makers Vestas Wind and Nordex among the leading gainers following a landmark climate deal.The pan-European FTSE Eurofirst index was up 0.7 per cent by 0825 GMT, after falling more than 2 per cent on Friday.
• China's yuan hit a fresh 4-1/2-year low to the dollar on Monday, after the central bank said it had begun publishing a yuan exchange rate weighted against a basket of currencies, a move that will eventually loosen the currency's link to the greenback.
• Energy-linked firms took another battering in Asia on Monday morning, leading losses on regional markets as oil prices sank to fresh seven-year lows, with warnings of further falls to come for the commodity.However, while companies that rely on fossil fuels to drive profits were taking a hit, he weekend climate deal was unlikely to have had a major impact on their shares for now.
• Gold ticked up on Monday, but was under pressure from a Federal Reserve policy meeting this week when the US central bank is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade.In its last policy meeting of the year on Dec. 15-16, the Fed is seen raising rates by a quarter of a per centage point.

DAILY FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD pair which was initially falling on Tuesday found enough support at 1.50 level to turn the things around and formed a rather positive hammer in the end. What remains to be seen is the direction it takes from here. We are currently holding no hopes of spikes rather are focusing our time on identifying selling opportunities. In our opinion, a breakdown below Tuesdays candle can also be a selling opportunity.

EURUSD

The EUR/USD pair went a notch higher on Tuesday, shooting through the hammer candle formed on the previous day. Although the sky seems to be clear but we do see a storm coming. In other words, we are going to sit this one out. 1.10 level above is going to be our flag off level. On the flip side, if we break the bottom of the hammer on Monday, we might think about entering a short position. After 1.10 level, we might set our eyes on 1.14 level, but that depends on crossing the 1.10 level first.

AUDUSD

The AUD/USD pair formed a candle possessing hammer like characteristics following an encounter with a support level that allowed it to take a U-turn. Any break above the hammer is a bullish signal and indicates an upward momentum. However, in the opposite direction it might move to 0.71 level. Australian Unemployment data would be among the figures released that would be having an impact on this pair.

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair took a bounce on Tuesday. However, we still haven't escaped the previous consolidation area; hence we are not sure how long this bounce will go in upward direction. The markets as always are in full oscillations, hence we are looking for some decent pull back that might give a significant profit. Apart from this, there is resistance zone extending from 124 level to 125 level.

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SGX Listed COMPANY OVERVIEW: SMRT Corporation

SMRT Corporation Ltd, an investment holding company, provides multi-modal public transport services in Singapore and internationally. It operates through Rail Operations, Bus Operations, Taxi Operations, Rental, Advertising, Engineering Services, and Other Services segments.

• The Rail Operations segment offers transport-related services. This segment operates North-South-East-West and circle lines of the mass rapid transit system; and the Bukit Panjang light rapid transit system.
• The Bus Operations segment provides public bus services. This segment offers approximately 102 bus services with a fleet of approximately 1,200 buses connecting the Western and North-Western areas with the rest of Singapore.
• The Taxi Operations segment rents taxis; offers taxi services; and sells diesel to taxi hirers. This segment manages a fleet of approximately 3,500 taxis. The Advertising segment sells and manages media spaces and marketing solutions; and e-commerce platform.
• The Rental segment engages in commercial space leasing, retail operations, and property management activities. This segment manages a network portfolio of approximately 37,700 square meters, as well as operates 41,000 square meters of retail space.
• The Engineering Services segment provides consultancy, project management, and rail engineering services; and leases fiber optic cables. The Other Services segment offers charter hire, and repair and maintenance services. This segment operates a fleet of 80 buses, which include mini-buses and 12-metre buses; and provides approximately 45 bus services to corporate clients. The company was founded in 1987 and is based in Singapore.

FINANCIAL VIEW

• Asset of the company is increasing and liabilities decreasing .
• The net income is continuously increasing, as well as revenue is also increasing.

Return on Equity	10.90
NAV	1897.3
Market Cap	S$ 2,222.3 mm

Return on Equity

• As chart is showing return on equity is increasing as compare to last year and technical chart is also indicating that SMRT has taken rebound.
• Return on equity also showing that company performing well so it is giving good return.

GROWTH OVER PRIOR YEAR (%)

	FY2013 31/Mar/2013	FY2014 31/Mar/2014	FY2015 31/Mar/2015
Revenue	1,119.469	1,192.714	1,278.88
Gross Profit	446.29	453.935	522.78
Net Income	83.338	61.902	91
EBITDA	270.079	254.855	319.023
Total Assets	2,224.405	2,072.512	2537.21
Total Liabilities	632.997	565.741	639.913

STOCKS TECHNICAL:

S1	S2	R1	R2
1.48	1.41	1.52	1.58

TECHNICAL INDICATORS:

Daily Chart: SMRT daily chart showing that market is taken rebound so we are expecting bullish trend in SMRT.RSI at 56 showing positive indication.

Weekly Chart: In weekly chart it made inverted hammer so its indicating in weekly frame it has taken rebound.

Our VIEW:

The stock is technically more sound, it has taken rebound from its support level 1.48 and we are expecting it will move up .we can see bullish trend in this counter. If its break its resistance of 1.50 then expected to go up
Short term View: BULLISH with support @1.41 target 1.52

Long term View: BULLISH with support @1.41 target 1.58

If traded on proper support and resistance for a day or so we can take out good profit in the contra holding also.

Singapore market statistics for November 2015: SGX Reports

Securities 

• Total Securities market turnover value fell 16% month on month and fell 13% year on year to S$19.4 billion, during 20 trading days compared to 22 in October and 20 in November 2014.
• Securities daily average value (SDAV) fell 8% month on month and fell 13% year on year to S$970 million. 
• Market turnover value of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) was S$158 million, down 41% month on month and down 20% year on year.
• There were 4 new Catalist listings, raising S$135 million.
• There were 31 new bond listings, raising S$14.0 billion.
• Total market capitalisation value of 771 listed companies stood at S$902.4 billion as at end November 2015.

Derivatives 

• Total Derivatives volume was 13.6 million, up 20% month on month and up 13% year on year.
• Equity Index Futures volume was 11.7 million, up 21% month on month and up 11% year on year. 
• FTSE China A50 Index Futures remained the most active contract with volume of 6.5 million, up 42% month on month and up 37% year on year.
• SGX CNX Nifty Index Futures volume was 1.5 million, down 6% month on month and up 1% year on year.
• Nikkei 225 Index Futures volume was 1.6 million, down 14% month on month and down 41% year on year.
• MSCI India Index Futures volume was 60,898, down 7% month on month and up from 322 contracts a year earlier.  
• Total FX Futures volume was 463,449, down 3% month on month and up 267% year on year.
• SGX INR/USD Futures volume was 423,600, down 6% month on month and up 296% year on year.
• SGX USD/CNH Futures volume was 35,128, up 69% month on month and up 180% year on year.
• Volume of OTC SGD Interest Rate Swaps was S$6.8 billion, down 10% month on month and up 197% year on year.

Commodities 

• SGX Commodities Derivatives volume was 988,334, up 28% month on month and up 86% year on year. 
• Iron Ore Derivatives volume was 885,264, up 29% month on month and up 86% year on year.
• Forward Freight Derivatives volume was 43,041, up 56% month on month and up from 5,115 contracts a year earlier.
• SICOM Rubber Futures volume, the world’s price benchmark for physical rubber, was 56,497, up 1% month on month and up 25% year on year.

Source: http://sgx.com

DAILY FOREX TECHNICAL REPORT

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD pair did a volt face on Thursday. It fell during the initial trading half of the day and then shot like an arrow through the 1.50 level.As the ending of the day approached near the the 1.52 level became fiercely resistive. The resistive nature of 1.52 level has forced us take a short position with an eye on a safe target of 1.50 whereas if it betrays us and breaks above the 1.53 level, the market should continue to go higher.

EURUSD

The European Central Bank(ECB) crushed all hopes lined with its stimulus and offered only disappointment which quickly resonated with the EUR/USD pair making a sudden take-off to the upside following its initial fall during the day. The launch in the later half of the day made the pair to enter into the bottom of the uptrend line that had previously made the ascending triangle.

All eyes now await the Non-farm Payroll Friday, which can turn the tables around if we get a very strong jobs number. A confirmation from a resistive candle would then give us the confidence to enter into the short position.

AUDUSD

The AUD/USD fell during the initial half of the day but then turned around owing to the strength of the Australian dollar. Currently the resistive zone of 0.74 level is visible and also there’s impending volatility due to the awaited unemployment data. We are set to take a short position as soon as we cross the lowest point of the preceding days candle. With passage of time, the direction of markets intentions would become clear and we would be free to make an impulsive move higher or face a break down .

USDJPY

The disappointment that the European Central Bank(ECB) delivered echoed through the USD/JPY too resulting on the Euro gaining and Dollar falling,consequently the pair fell apart during the day on Thursday. This particular market is very sensitive to the jobs number, hence hoping if we get a decent number, we are to positive in seeing this market retrace its path back to the top of the triangle that is on the chart. Two supports one at 122 , and the 121 level are visible.

Bursa Malaysia: Daily Market Commentary (Securities)

The FBM KLCI index lost 6.05 points or 0.36% on Friday. The Finance Index fell 0.21% to 14090.33 points, the Properties Index dropped 0.05% to 1191.64 points and the Plantation Index down 0.56% to 7430.38 points. The market traded within a range of 5.97 points between an intra-day high of 1673.11 and a low of 1667.14 during the session.
Actively traded stocks include INSTACO, GENETEC, XOX, INSTACO-WB, BORNOIL-WC, HIBISCS, WINTONI, BORNOIL, EFFICEN and APFT. Trading volume decreased to 1572.50 mil shares worth RM1597.07 mil as compared to Thursday’s 2041.00 mil shares worth RM1837.02 mil.
Leading Movers were RHBCAP (+8 sen to RM6.00), KLCC (+6 sen to RM7.04), TM (+3 sen to RM6.60), PETCHEM (+2 sen to RM6.75) and DIGI (+1 sen to RM5.07). Lagging Movers were SIME (-19 sen to RM7.72), YTL (-3 sen to RM1.51), HLBANK (-18 sen to RM12.80), BAT (-72 sen to RM57.88) and GENM (-5 sen to RM4.30). Market breadth was negative with 347 gainers as compared to 424 losers.
The KLCI ended the week on a negative note, closed lower at 1667.87 points amid overnight losses in Wall Street after Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen signaled the economy is ready for higher borrowing cost.

Source: JF Apex Securities Bhd

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SINGAPORE SGX STOCK MARKET REVIEW & FUTURE FORECAST

Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index opened lower on Thursday at 2,858.96, down 24.68 points or 0.86 per cent, after an oil price slide ahead of an OPEC meeting and ended higher to 0.3 points or 0.01 percent at 2883.9.STI came off from its intra-day peak of 2890.03 and low of 2857.499.

LOCAL BOURSE

Singapore's private sector firms saw a recovery in November in business conditions, with new business supporting a faster expansion of output.Nikkei Singapore Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was at 52.2 in November, up from 50.2 in October.

"Though modest, the latest improvement was the strongest seen since February," the financial information services provider which compiles the index.Earnings forecasts for Singapore companies are likely to be cut again in 2016, after a dismal performance for many firms this year.

This as slowing demand from China and domestic policies to cool property prices hit stocks in the city-state.

MARKET FORECAST

STI is expected to consolidate within the range of 2870-2900. It has its support at 2855 and resistance at 2905. If it breaks this resistance it might go up to 2925. Investor’s sentiment are cautious over the hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reinforced the case for an interest rate hike later this month.

STI COUNTER SPECIFIC NEWS

• SMRT Corporation will collaborate with the Agency for Science, Technology and Research to develop technologies to improve Singapore's transport network reliability and performance.The five-year agreement will bring together the rail operations and engineering capabilities of SMRT, the strengths in sensor networks and data analytics of I2R.
• Ascendas Hospitality Trust (AHTrust) will pay A$120 million ($124 million) for the serviced apartments component of a mixed-use development at 224-252 La Trobe Street, Melbourne, Australia.The property is freehold and comprises 252 units of apartments, on levels 10 to 32 of a 92-storey development.
• Q&M Dental Group (Singapore) plans to restructure its stake in Qinhuangdao Aidite High Technical Ceramic Co, ahead of a possible listing of the China-based manufacturing subsidiary.As part of the restructuring, Aidite will reduce its equity capital to RMB23.97 million ($5.3 million) from RM47 million.

GLOBAL FACTORS AND WORLD INDICES:

• Asian stocks slipped and the dollar advanced on Thursday after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reinforced the case for an interest rate hike later this month.
• Japan's Nikkei lost 0.3 per cent, moving in a tight range as a wait-and-see mood prevailed ahead of the European Central Bank's policy decision later in the day.
• China stocks rose for the fourth straight day on Thursday, recovering most of last Friday's 5-per cent loss, as banking and property heavyweights propped up main indexes, while fears arising from the government's crackdown on brokerages receded.
• Tokyo shares closed flat Thursday after cautiously erasing early losses on late afternoon bargain-hunting ahead of a policy meeting by the European Central Bank later in the day.The benchmark Nikkei index at the Tokyo Stock Exchange ended up 0.01 per cent, or 1.77 points, at 19,939.90.
• Seoul shares slipped on Thursday on foreign and institutional selling, but moves were cautious ahead of the European Central Bank's policy meeting and the release of US non-farm payrolls.
• US crude stocks rose last week for the tenth straight week, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased.Crude inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts' expectations for an decrease of 471,000 barrels.
• Weak inflation data spurred hopes the European Central Bank could deliver more stimulus this week, though European bourses traded in a tight range.The data appeared to cement hopes that the ECB - which announces the outcome of its latest monetary policy meeting on Thursday - will ramp up its quantitative easing (QE) bond-buying programme.
• Oil prices bounced back in Asia on Thursday but trading was cautious on signs the Opec cartel is divided ahead of a meeting on whether to maintain or slash its high output levels.The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate closed below US$40 a barrel for the first time since late August.
• The US dollar firmed on Wednesday, bolstered by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's signal that the US economy looks strong enough for an interest rate hike this month.The euro, meanwhile, was under pressure as traders expect the European Central Bank to announce additional stimulus to fight low inflation and tepid growth in the eurozone after a policy meeting.
• Gold tumbled to the lowest level in more than five years as investors digested comments by Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen which added to reasons to expect that US interest rates will rise gradually after a widely anticipated lift-off this month.Bullion for immediate delivery dropped 0.7% to US$1,046.44 ($1,478) an ounce.
  
  
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Reserve Bank of India maintains repo rate at 6.75%, CRR at 4%

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its fifth Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement for 2015-16, has decided to keep the repo rate same, with no pulls or pressure from the market. Governor Raghuram Rajan declared that the Repo Rate will be maintained at 6.75%, with CRR at 4%. Reverse Repo Rate is held at 5.75%.

RBI in an official statement said, "Since the fourth bi-monthly statement of September 2015, global growth continues to be weak. Global trade has slowed further with waning demand and oversupply in several primary commodities and industrial materials. In the United States, inventory accumulation is likely to hold down growth in Q4 of 2015. Industrial production slumped in October on cutbacks in oil drilling, while exports were undermined by the strengthening US dollar. Consumer confidence was, however, supported by the diminishing slack in the labour market. In the Euro area, high frequency indicators such as retail sales, purchasing managers’ indices and unemployment point to an uptick in a still anaemic recovery, with monetary policy expected to be increasingly supportive as risks of undershooting the inflation target persist. In China, slowing nominal GDP growth and high debt continue to raise concerns, especially given the overcapacity in certain sectors. Other emerging market economies (EMEs) continue to face headwinds from domestic structural constraints, shrinking trade volumes and depressed commodity prices."

It added, "The Reserve Bank assessed that the inflation target for January 2016 at 6 per cent was within reach. Accordingly, it front-loaded its policy action in response to weak domestic and global demand that were holding back investment, while noting that structural reforms and productivity improvements would continue to provide the main impetus for sustainable growth."

The Indian central bank has cut policy rates by a cumulative 125 basis points this calendar year, and surprised markets and analysts with a sharp 50 basis points rate cut in the last rate review.

India’s central bank has managed to tame inflation down to manageable levels and the price gauge has remained within its comfort zone for several months now. In fact, wholesale price inflation has consistently been in the deflationary territory. Retail inflation saw an uptick to 5 per cent in October, which was a four-month high, rising from 4.41 per cent in September. That did raised a few eyebrows as did the reports about a drop in rabi crop output and a sharp rise in the prices of pulses, which are likely to put pressure on food price inflation. Yet, the comforting factor is that the retail inflation number remains below RBI's January 2016 target of 6 per cent.

The Reserve Bank will shortly finalise the methodology for determining the base rate based on the marginal cost of funds, which all banks will move to. The Government is examining linking small savings interest rates to market interest rates. These moves should further help transmission of policy rates into lending rates. In addition, the on-going clean-up of bank balance sheets will help create room for fresh lending. The Reserve Bank will use the space for further accommodation, when available, while keeping the economy anchored to the projected disinflation path that should take inflation down to 5 per cent by March 2017.

The sixth bi-monthly monetary policy statement will be announced on Tuesday, February 2, 2016.

Losing Money In Stock Market? Do These 3 Things To Avoid

Carl Gustav Jacob Jacobi is a German mathematician who was born in the early 19th century. He has a reputation as one of the finest mathematicians the world has ever known. But just why would a math wizard appear in an investing article here?

Thing is, Jacobi has a phrase that’s oft-quoted by investing maestro Charlie Munger and that is, “Invert, always invert.” Jacobi believed that problems are best solved when inverted. I believe this applies to investing too.

So, instead of asking “What should I do to make money in stocks,” a better question could be “How should I avoid losing money when investing?”

To answer the latter question, below are three things we can do. While the list I have here is not exhaustive as a ‘how-to’ on minimising your odds of losing money while investing, it’s still a good place to start.

1. Avoid short-term stock market forecasts

It’s tempting to listen to the views of highly-paid and well-respected finance professionals on the stock market’s short-term future and then invest accordingly. But, it’s worth noting how horrible their collective track-records are.

Financial institutions (think banks and investment firms) on Wall Street, the Capital of finance in the U.S., have people who work as “market strategists.” These guys (and gals) are well-read, highly educated, very well-compensated – and very wrong at times.

One of their key jobs involves forecasting, at the start of the year, where the S&P 500 (one of the key stock market indexes in the U.S.) will be by the end of it. Earlier this year, my colleague Morgan Housel had looked at these strategists’ track records going back to 2000. He then plotted the results of each year’s average forecast into the chart seen below:

Source: Birinyi Associates, S&P Capital IQ (Morgan Housel)

The chart shows that the forecasts were wildly different from the market’s actual performance in many of those years (the blue bars represent the average forecast gain while the red bars represent the market’s actual return). In fact, according to Morgan, “the strategists’ forecasts were off by an average of 14.7 percentage points per year.”

2. Be careful with highly-valued shares

Shares with expensive-looking valuation metrics are not always bad investments. But, it pays to at least be careful with a stock that is very highly-valued.

Near the end of May this year, Jason Holdings Limited (SGX: 5I3), a company that provides timber flooring services, was trading at S$0.64 and being valued at 330 times its trailing earnings and 9.4 times its book value.

At that time, the market – as represented by the SPDR STI ETF (SGX: ES3), an exchange-traded fund which tracks the fundamentals of the market barometer, the Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI) – had a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of just 14.

Today, Jason Holdings’ shares are exchanging hands at S$0.073 each, some 88% lower than the price of S$0.64.

3. Pay close attention to companies with high-debt

Debt can be used in a smart manner by companies to create value for shareholders. But, debt can also be a source of big trouble, especially when companies start piling it on.

The late Walter Schloss, who is an investor with a great long-term track record, once wisely said: “I don’t like debt because it can really get a company into trouble.” It’s such a simple yet powerful statement.

Fishmeal producer China Fishery Group Ltd (SGX: B0Z) is a vivid example of the potential destructiveness of debt. As you can see in the chart below, the company has been heavily-leveraged (as alluded to by the high net-debt position) for many years:

Source: S&P Capital IQ

Last week, Bloomberg revealed that one of China Fishery’s lenders, the bank HSBC, had taken legal action against the company because of debt-related issues. China Fishery has since appointed provisional liquidators to help deal with the problem and suspended the trading of its shares. The company’s stock has fallen by 73% over the past year.

STI TECHINCAL REPORT; WEEKLY WRAP OF STI

Straits Times Index (STI) dropped 25.57 points to 2,859.12 on Friday, bringing its loss for the week to 58 points or 2 per cent and for the year to 15 per cent. Turnover throughout the five days was low and focused mainly in blue chips and penny stocks. Market consolidated within the range of 2880-2940 from quit a few time but felled after braking its support of 2880 and ended at 2859.18 this week. The Market opened Gap down due to the fall in China’s Market by around 4.5% down after Chinas Industrial data fell by 4.6%.

The government's growth forecast for the full year, however, has been trimmed to "close to 2%", compared with its earlier projection of 2-2.5%. On a seasonally adjusted, annualised basis, the economy grew 1.9% q-o-q, reversing from 2Q's 2.6% contraction, as per the Ministry of Trade and Industry. This compares an earlier flash estimate of a 0.1% expansion. Singapore's private residential property prices have slid 8.2% from its peak in September 2013.The decline largely stems from property cooling measures.

MARKET FORECAST FOR WEEK AHEAD

STI is expected to be bearish as it has broken its support level at 2879.The Fed meeting next month and China's falling industrial output will lead towards a downtrend. If STI breaks its support level of 2842 it will go further down .

STI COUNTER SPECIFIC NEWS

• QT Vascular received a stay of enforcement regarding a legal matter in the US.The firm had been ordered to pay damages of US$20.034 million ($28.2 million) in a legal case that has already been through a trial court, but has been granted a stay of enforcement during the appeals process.
• CHINA Everbright won a deal with the People's Government of Daxing District, Beijing, to upgrade and expand the Beijing Daxing Tiantanghe Waste Water Treatment Project.
• China Fishery Group Ltd. failed to repay a US$31 million installment due earlier this month on a US$650 million loan.As a result, one of the lenders successfully applied for provisional liquidators, indicating that the lender is unwilling to negotiate for further extensions or waivers.
• Developer Bonvests Holdings has agreed to acquire the property known as Lot 66 and 482-484 Murray Street, Perth, Australia from with Murray Street Pty Ltd and the property known as 486-488 Murray Street from Kingsgold Pty Ltd.The total consideration for the acquisitions is A$14.78 million ($15 million).
• Avic International Maritime Holdings said its subsidiary Deltamarin has clinched a €2 million ($3 million) contract from Qingshan Shipyard of Sinotrans in China to design the world's first LNG handysize bulk carriers.
• Chinese shares plunged more than six percent Friday, after inquiries were announced into several major brokerage firms.The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index slumped 6.11 per cent, or 222.18 points, to 3,413.37. The Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China's second exchange, tumbled 6.66 per cent, or 154.96 points, to 2,170.73.

GLOBAL FACTORS AND WORLD INDICES

• Asia risks rise as Fed liftoff tests stability.A faster than expected withdrawal of monetary-policy accommodation in major advanced economies could trigger a reversal of global term premia.
• Profits earned by Chinese industrial companies fell 4.6 per cent in October from a year earlier,declining for the fifth consecutive month. Industrial profits – which cover large enterprises with annual revenue of more than 20 million yuan (S$4.41 million) from their main operations – fell 2.0 per cent.
• A plunge in Chinese stocks dragged Asian markets down on Friday after authorities launched a probe into several brokerages and profits at the country's industrial giants sank far more than expected.
• European share index fell from a three-month high, hit by a drop in the mining sector after a slump in Chinese equities which was triggered by weak data and a regulatory crackdown.
• Hong Kong stocks slid on Friday, with the headline Hang Seng index posting its worst weekly performance in two months as a tumble in mainland stocks triggered anxiety across the region.The Hang Seng index fell 1.9 percent, to 22,068.32.
• Chinese shares plunged more than six percent Friday, after inquiries were announced into several major brokerage firms.The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index slumped 6.11 per cent, or 222.18 points, to 3,413.37. The Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China's second exchange, tumbled 6.66 per cent, or 154.96 points, to 2,170.73.
• Japan's core consumer prices fell for the third straight month and household spending slumped in October, underscoring the fragile nature of the economy and keeping policymakers under pressure to take further steps to jump-start growth.The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes oil costs, fell 0.1% in the year to October.
• Gold dipped towards its lowest level in nearly six years on Friday and was on track for a sixth straight weekly decline, weakened by a robust dollar and expectations of a US interest rate hike next month.
• The dollar is trading near an eight-month high against a basket of major currencies, boosted by euro weakness and prospects of higher US rates.
• Crude oil futures fell on Friday with losses this month standing at over 8%, hurt by disappointing Chinese economic data and worries over a supply glut.A firmer US dollar also weighed on oil, making greenback-denominated contracts more expensive for holders of other currencies.